Russia’s Attack on Ukraine Highlights a Paradigm Shift in Modern Warfare

Western observers have examined countless articles and reports seeking valuable insights from Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, attempting to forecast its impact on future warfare. However, navigating these complexities is hindered by confirmation bias and rigid analytical lenses that cloud the lessons that could be learned. This has led to misinterpretations, misguided defense strategies and ineffective responses from European nations.

While some countries responded by boosting defense budgets and acquiring new equipment post-Russia’s invasion, focusing on conventional forces remains a misstep for many. The conflict underscores a Western military approach that has limited effectiveness for most European nations, except for a select few.

There are compelling reasons why many European countries should avoid Western-style defense frameworks. Proximity to Russian forces, small populations, lack of natural barriers, the advent of drones and limited military capabilities all point to the need for tailored defensive strategies.

A stark example of outdated strategies can be seen in Putin’s Soviet-style tank offensive without command of the airspace. This resulted in the loss of 7,429 Russian tanks since February 2022 from a vastly inferior army that only lost 547 tanks.

Putin’s war highlights the importance of developing unique, cost-effective defense approaches that capitalize on individual historical, cultural and geographic factors. Rather than trying to match conventional might, the emphasis should be on creating asymmetry to outmaneuver stronger adversaries. Europe can learn from Ukraine’s experience, focusing on creating dilemmas and exploiting weaknesses to succeed in conflict scenarios.

War frequently unfolds in cities and among civilians, not on distant battlefields. The notion of shielding civilians and urban spaces from conflict is not a reality. European nations must recognize the vital role of urban areas in defense strategies. By fortifying urban infrastructure, adversaries’ intelligence and weapons systems can be neutralized. Enhancing existing structures and creating new ones can impede enemy movements. Preparing urban areas as fortresses with hidden routes, weapon caches and decoy positions can buy precious time and deceive adversaries.

The role of allies in war is vital, yet it can pose challenges to defense efforts. Western advice and equipment have influenced Ukraine’s warfare approach, shaping its strategic direction. Diversifying sources of advice with varied military backgrounds could have altered Ukraine’s strategies. The Russian experience in Chechnya and Western conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan highlights the importance of countering technologically superior foes effectively. While alliances are essential, reliance levels on allies should be carefully evaluated to maintain adaptability.

The conflict in Ukraine has underscored that national security is no longer the sole responsibility of the government or defense forces. Given the complexities of modern warfare and the varied capabilities of different stakeholders, it is imperative to involve a much larger portion of society in national defense strategies. Exercises offer a valuable opportunity to test the integration of different societal components, identify areas for improvement and advocate for legislative reforms to enhance national defense endeavors.

Having an in-depth understanding of one’s adversary is vital and provides a significant advantage. Post-Cold War, many European countries, including the United States, have drifted away from Russian cultural expertise, removed communist Soviet doctrines from military education, and reduced or eliminated Russian language instruction.

The Ukrainian conflict underscores the necessity to reintegrate Russian cultural and language studies into military educational institutions. Furthermore, there is a pressing need to study Russian force structures, command practices, tactics, equipment capabilities and weapon systems to shape the future training and education of European military personnel.

The conflict in Ukraine has shattered the conventional image of warfare, rendering traditional military assets like tanks and aircraft vulnerable to small, agile and cost-effective unmanned systems. The Ukrainian forces managed to inflict significant damage on the Russian Black Sea Fleet using unmanned platforms, highlighting the evolution of modern warfare.

The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) made waves with news of a groundbreaking achievement with successful tests of a game-changing new water drone prototype. Dubbed the Manta Ray, it is self-driving, designed with several payload bays of different sizes, is virtually undetectable and able to remain in hibernation for long periods on the sea floor without the need to refuel.

Ukrainian military intelligence agency reported that drones punctured “critical holes” in the Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov, causing it to sink. Ukraine stated that its forces had successfully disabled approximately 33 percent of all of Russia's warships; 24 ships and one submarine.

This paradigm shift challenges European countries to rethink their military strategies, steering away from pricey, high-tech solutions and towards agile, affordable and stealthy alternatives that promise greater defense effectiveness. Such a transformation will impact equipment choices and necessitate adjustments in force design, tactics, training and education.

While Ukraine’s resilience and unity in the face of Russian aggression have been commendable, the reality of war in 2024 reveals a different narrative. Despite societal expectations, many young men have evaded military service through various means, indicating a reluctance to engage in combat. Moreover, the age profile of Ukrainian soldiers points to a broader issue of generational disengagement from military service, posing challenges to sustaining an effective defense force. With limited human resources, European nations must heed these insights to ensure robust national defense planning.

This lack of interest in the military is due in part to the perception of reality molded by the media, and one cannot underestimate the role of the media in times of war. Deception proves to be a potent strategic tool; “Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it and eventually they will believe it” ― Joseph Goebbels, Hitler’s propagandist.

The conflict in Ukraine underscores the value of visibility in targeting and the consequences of engaging with decoys. Both sides have embraced deception across physical and virtual domains. Enhancing military education to counter deception and fostering innovation in defense technologies have become imperative in modern warfare.

European countries stand at a pivotal historical moment that could determine their survival. The recent Russian attack on Ukraine has jolted them into a tepid, weak and soft action, prompting a moderate increase in national defense spending. However, many are taking missteps by investing in outdated capabilities and clinging to illusions about the horrors of communism and the use of conventional warfare.

The lessons from Ukraine highlight a paradigm shift taking place in modern warfare. What works in one context may not apply elsewhere, and leaders must be willing to adapt or discard old theories of war.

Beneath the facade of formidable strength, Putin is anything but invincible. Despite years of attempting to intimidate the world with choreographed military displays, the invasion of Ukraine has exposed a starkly different truth. Since February 2022, Putin’s once highly regarded army has faced a rapid decline in reputation, experiencing significant battlefield losses and failing to make substantial progress against its much smaller, ill-outfitted neighbor.

The West must wake up to the reality of more attacks from Russia foretold at Fatima and revamp their defense strategies to align with the demands of modern warfare. Failure to do so will have dire consequences for the future in the face of potential communist aggression in the European and Pacific theaters.

“[Russia] …will spread her errors throughout the world, causing wars and persecutions of the Church. The good will be martyred; the Holy Father will have much to suffer, and various nations will be annihilated. Our Lady at Fatima, 1917.

Is this not happening before our very eyes?